You're right; The Shadow might figure something phony, if he was coming into a place.
So there was; but The Shadow figured it in reverse.
This might well prove to be one of those many incidents wherein The Shadow figured.
The only trouble is, The Shadow figured it all out before you did.
The Shadow figured that he could make the fifteen miles in a dozen minutes, without straining his car.
Therefore, The Shadow was figuring on the future; not the past.
Nor did he foresee that The Shadow would figure in future affairs.
He realized that The Shadow had already figured out the answer.
The Shadow had figured that the killer would have a free door ready for prompt departure.
I'd like to know, though, how The Shadow figured the answer to that one.