"The economic problems that affected voters two and four years ago are still around," said Robert Joffee, an independent pollster in Miami.

"It's close now, and the movement mainly is on Gore's end," said John Zogby, an independent pollster.

"Barely half the people think this election is a referendum on anything except the two candidates," said Tim Hibbitts, an independent pollster.

"This race was always hers to lose," said Edward Sarpolus, an independent pollster.

"It was the home run of the election," said John Zogby, an independent pollster.

Most independent pollsters also see a dead tie.

But Mr. Smith, the independent pollster, believes the number of voters who have not already made up their minds is very small.

In two separate experiments this year, Miguel Basanez, an independent pollster, asked groups of 400 people to name their preferred presidential candidate.

He left UPI after less than one year, however, and set up shop as an independent pollster, continuing to focus on public policy issues.

For John Zogby, an independent pollster, such declarations are not surprising.